“And the Oscar goes to…“
The Academy Awards is the biggest night in Hollywood. Film industry elites flock together to witness a lucky few receive the prestigious award. As a company obsessed with data, we set out to push the limits of intent data through popular culture. Intent data is ever-evolving in marketing and sales. So, we ran an experiment to test if intent data could predict the winners of the 2023 Oscars.
Intent data is information collected from an individual’s or accounts’ online behavior. This can include the websites and content they visit. By analyzing this data, it’s possible to gain insights into people’s preferences, interests, and even their intentions to purchase. This proves incredibly useful for B2B organizations, like identifying potential buyers.
The Experiment:
We tracked keywords for the six big award categories: Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Director, and Best Picture.
For each nominee, we tracked four custom keywords. After a few weeks of data collection, we analyzed the results to determine which keywords received the most engagement in each award category. We collected engagements from social media and public web sources.
Predictions and Outcomes:
Our predictions were determined by which nominees received the largest share of engagements in their categories.
Note: All percentages are rounded to the nearest whole number.
Category: Best Lead Actor
Prediction: Austin Butler, Elvis | Winner: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
| Nominee | Percentage of engagement |
|---|---|
| Austin Butler, Elvis | 78% |
| Brendan Fraser, The Whale | 15% |
| Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin | 4% |
| Paul Mescal, Aftersun | 3% |
| Bill Nighy, Living | >1% |
Austin Butler and Elvis garnered 11% and 67% of all keyword engagements, respectively, in this category. It’s fair to assume that there is an overlap between those engaging with Elvis the 2022 film and Elvis the artist. The latter is likely earning a fair amount of online engagement at any moment.
Category: Best Supporting Actor
Prediction: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once | Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
| Nominee | Percentage of engagement |
|---|---|
| Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once | 79% |
| Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans | 9% |
| Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin | 6% |
| Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin | 3% |
| Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway | 2% |
Ke Huy Quan made his comeback to the big screen via this bombastic film. Despite a challenging year for box-office profits, the film grossed $108 million USD.
Category: Best Lead Actress
Prediction: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once | Winner: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
| Nominee | Percentage of engagement |
|---|---|
| Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once | 62% |
| Cate Blanchett, Tàr | 32% |
| Ana de Armas, Blonde | 2% |
| Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans | 2% |
| Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie | 2% |
Her first Oscar nomination, Michelle Yeoh is the second woman of color to win Best Actress. Yeoh has also won awards from the Screen Actors Guild and The Golden Globes for her performance as the multiverse traveling laundromat owner.
Category: Best Supporting Actress
Prediction: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once | Winner: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
| Nominee | Percentage of engagement |
|---|---|
| Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once | 35% |
| Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once | 33% |
| Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | 18% |
| Hong Chau, The Whale | 14% |
| Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin | >1% |
This prediction was a close one. Co-stars on Everything Everywhere All at Once, only a 2% margin separated Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu.
Category: Best Picture
Prediction: Elvis | Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
| Nominee | Percentage of engagement |
|---|---|
| Elvis | 45% |
| Everything Everywhere All at Once | 20% |
| Women Talking | 12% |
| All Quiet on the Western Front | 10% |
| Avatar: The Way of Water | 5% |
| Triangle of Sadness | 4% |
| Top Gun: Maverick | 3% |
| The Banshees of Inisherin | 1% |
| Tàr | >1% |
| The Fabelmans | >1% |
Everything Everywhere All at Once is the second science-fiction film to win Best Picture. Despite receiving eight nominations, Elvis earned no golden statues on Oscar night.
Category: Best Director
Prediction: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once | Winner: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
| Nominee | Percentage of engagement |
|---|---|
| Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once | 53% |
| Todd Field, Tàr | 30% |
| Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness | 11% |
| Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin | 14% |
| Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans | 1% |
Professionally known as “Daniels” the directing duo has been working together since 2009. Their kung-fu, sci-fi drama left the ceremony with seven awards.
The Takeaway
Tracking keyword engagements on the public web made identifying nominees that generated the most buzz and potential winners possible. In essence, the data showed us which films and nominees garnered the popular share of voice.
Yet, this wasn’t foolproof. Online popularity didn’t choose who won on Oscar night. Winners are the result of votes cast by members of The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. The opinions of Academy voters are influenced by a multitude of factors, including personal preferences, industry politics, and cultural trends. While popular opinion can’t choose the Oscar winners, it may have influenced the academy’s voting patterns.
Like the Oscars, within every company is a group of hidden decision-makers choosing who will win their business. However, unlike the Academy Awards, savvy marketers have the power to influence that decision. Popularity does carry weight in the consideration process. But, the results illustrate there is more happening behind the scenes. Intent data is one piece of the puzzle.
Learn how your data can help refine targeting strategies and develop actionable insights for your next campaign.
